In response to Fred's post, I have a simple theory about who people vote for.  It's the "Most Like Me" theory.

 

Simply put, people vote for the person who is most like them.  Depending on the information available, they determine "alikeness" based on many factors.  In a Presidential race millions are spent to tell voters [implicitly or explicitly] why the candidates are or aren't like them.

 

But when you don't know much about a candidate's beliefs, or when all the candidates seem to believe pretty much the same thing, what data do you have?

 

Age and gender are things you can find out easily.  Other factors only become known if the candidate brings them to your attention.

 

I thought Nick would get the most votes because of his incumbency and being closer in age to so many voters than the next oldest candidate.  Laura, Matt, and Tom are all about the same age, so I thought they might get most of the boomer vote.

 

If you are a mother then perhaps Margaret is going to be your choice, because she's the only mom running.  Etc.

 

It's a real challenge for a Green to win the "most like me" contest.  The fact that Stephanie is doing as well as she is impresses me greatly.  I think she has caused a lot of voters to ask themselves a different question: "Who do you wish you were more like?"  When people start asking this question and saying "Stephanie!", it's a transformation of politics as usual.  It's the kind of voter reaction that we older folks associate with Bobby Kennedy, Cesar Chavez, and MLK.

 

And of course we can never forget the important question: "Who came to my house and talked to me?"  I believe, as do other candidates I've talked to, that most people will vote for a candidate who comes to their home no matter what the candidate's positions on the issues are.  And Stephanie did a superb job there too.

 

Cheers,

Bruce